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Friday, 6 July 2018

Why Ruto has started early campaigns

Mwai Kibaki had to leave government before he became President. You know history sometimes repeats itself, first as farce and secondly as tragedy. But the present occupants of the Presidency have also made history by being the first ICC suspects to get into power. On that basis, Deputy President William Ruto might break the vice-presidential jinx, because, apart from former President Daniel Moi, who inherited power, there is no sitting VP who has become President.

Mount Kenya might vote for Ruto, but, if you look at history in the multiparty era, Central Kenya has always voted for one of their own. If there is a Kikuyu running in the coming polls it will be very difficult for Ruto to win that election.
Many things happening between now and 2022. Will the opposition stick together or fall apart! If the opposition sticks together and Raila runs as a presidential candidate, Ruto will still win. But if Raila steps down, it will create a complication for Ruto.

Gideon is his father’s son and has very serious name recognition. He also has a lot of money. But he is not aggressive. What looks like his weakness could also be his strength.
In this country, you don’t become President, you are made President: That is the handicap Ruto has. It is the advantage that Gideon has against Ruto. Gideon does not want to be President – he will sit and wait to be made one.

No one has become President in Kenya on his own.

Former Vice President Oginga Odinga made the late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta President. Raila made Kibaki President. Moi was made President by Kibaki and Njonjo. If Ruto thinks he can make himself President, it will be very difficult. That is another advantage Gideon has. Gideon will sit there waiting for the wielders of power to make him President. If Gideon is made a candidate of the joint opposition coalition, he will be a force and will change the political landscape. He can win. But remember Gideon also has money and people who can put billions on him. Those people who made money during the Moi era have no problem with him. The people who made money during the Moi era are the people with the money in this country.

The main Ruto challenge is that he has made a lot of enemies. It is the same mistake Raila made.

The handshake between Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta changed the political path for William Ruto he has to start his campaigns early and win over opposition bases since as it stands now mount kenya vote is not guaranteed for Ruto after the handshake.

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